The data released by South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) this week painted a positive picture of the 2022/23 summer crop season as well as the 2023/24 winter crop season, says Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz).
The CEC forecast South Africa’s 2022/23 maize crop estimate at 16.4 million tons, up mildly from last month (up 0.3% m/m).
Sihlobo said that regarding the summer crops, they had the seventh 2022/23 summer crop production estimates, and this data was unlikely to change in the following three updates for the season. “If we focus on a few major summer crops, this crop is 6% more than the 2021/22 season and the second-largest harvest on record. The expected ample harvest is primarily on the back of large yields, as the area planted is slightly down from the 2021/22 season. A crop of 16.4 million tons implies South Africa will have sufficient supplies to meet domestic maize needs of roughly 11.4 million tons and have over 3.2 million tons for export markets in the 2023/24 marketing year (this marketing year corresponds with the 2022/23 production season),” he said.
The soybeans harvest was unchanged from July’s record estimate of 2.8 million tons (up 24% y/y).
Agbiz said the annual crop improvement was due to an expansion in the area planted and higher yields. “The ample soybeans harvest means South Africa could meet its domestic demand and remain with about 350 000 tons of soybeans for export markets. The sunflower seed production estimate was lowered by 2% from July estimates to 743 610 tons (down 12% y/y). The general decline in the sunflower seed production forecast mirrors the reduced planted area in some areas.”
With regard to the winter crops, the agricultural organisation said first production estimates for winter crops showed the 2023/24 wheat production at 2.1 million tons (up 2% y/y) primarily due to an expected large harvest in the Western Cape and Limpopo. Sihlobo said with the wheat harvest of this size, South Africa would likely need to import about 1.5 million tons of wheat to meet domestic consumption in the 2023/24 season (down from 1.6 million tons in the previous season).
The 2023/24 barley production was estimated at 380 020 tons (up 26% y/y). This will be the largest crop in four years and would mainly be supported by an expansion in the area planted and the anticipated better yields. The 2023/24 canola crop was estimated at a record 243 950 tons (up 16% y/y), also on the back of increased plantings and expected better yields.
The chief economist said that overall, the winter crop was in good condition, and they would keep a close eye on weather conditions in the coming months. Regarding the summer crop, the focus will soon shift to the new 2023/24 production season that starts in October since the current season was towards completion.
BUSINESS REPORT