The occurrence of snowfall like the one recently experienced in parts of KwaZulu-Natal and the Free State is not particularly rare during the Spring season, according to the South African Weather Service.
This was highlighted during a media briefing organised by the national press club in Pretoria, where experts discussed the latest weather predictions and analyses.
Senior forecaster Puseletso Mofokeng, part of the team that predicted the snowfall, emphasised their preparedness for such events.
“It was easy to identify the N3 as a potential route to be closed, but we did not only identify the N3. We also identified the N11 and the N5,” Mofokeng noted.
The foresight proved crucial, as many motorists found themselves stranded on the N3 near Van Reenen's Pass due to the impassable route.
While the recent snowfall caused significant disruptions, Mofokeng pointed out that similar events could be expected in the future, albeit not this year.
“In the first two weeks, this week and next week, certainly not, but in the future, perhaps next year, we will see such events,” he said.
Mofokeng elaborated on their use of impact-based forecasting, which considers both vulnerability and the event's impact.
“What happened is, we saw the model showing the accumulation of snowfall, so the likelihood of the event was well identified,” he explained.
Lead scientist for long-range prediction, Dr Christien Engelbrecht, provided insights into upcoming weather patterns, indicating a high likelihood of a La Niña event developing during Spring.
“This will most likely be a weak La Niña event persisting through the 2024-2025 summer season. At this stage, the seasonal prediction can be generated up until mid-summer,” she said.
Engelbrecht also emphasised that significant snowfall events in September are not uncommon. She cited a notable event from September 19 to 21, 2008, when heavy snowfall led to road closures in KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape.
“Significant snow events have occurred in the month of October although not frequently,” she said.
Rudzani Malala, Senior Manager: Disaster Risk Management, explained how South Africa's topography contributes to varied weather conditions affecting daily life.
“For example, the western coast appears to be generally cool due to the cold Benguela current, and the eastern coast is relatively warmer as influenced by the Agulhas current. The eastern Highveld and the Drakensberg region are relatively cool and wet, while the north-eastern region is relatively warm to hot,” he said.
Malala also highlighted the extreme conditions experienced at the onset of Spring 2024, where hot temperatures and some heatwave conditions were swiftly altered by a cold frontal system and a cut-off low system.
“However, the onset of the cold frontal system and a cut-off low system changed everything,” he concluded.
Pretoria News
rapula.moatshe@inl.co.za