Johannesburg - The ANC policy conference is set to become a factional battleground later this week.
In one corner, the Radical Economic Transformation (RET) faction is sharpening its knives for President Cyril Ramaphosa, whose Phala Phala farm scandal has weakened him somewhat.
In the other corner, the CR faction will be hoping to use the policy conference to shore up the position of the president.
Following the death of the acting and deputy secretary-general Jesse Duarte, the RET faction might be looking for the reinstatement of suspended secretary-general Ace Magashule to the all-important task of managing the affairs of the ANC at Luthuli House as it prepares for the elective conference in December.
The RET faction would also likely call for the removal of Ramaphosa for his inability to come out clean on the Phala Phala scandal, his indecisiveness, and poor handling of the country's numerous problems including Eskom blackouts.
Conversely, the CR faction’s strategy would be to finish off Magashule and the RET faction by getting the policy conference to pass a motion of confidence in Ramaphosa and being resolute behind the step aside rule.
This would clear the decks for the re-election of Ramaphosa and his slate in December.
As a scene setter for the drama later this month, last week dozens of ANC supporters, led by MK veteran Carl Niehaus, former North West premier Supra Mahumapelo, and RET's Nkosentsha Shezi, protested outside the ANC headquarters in Luthuli House in Joburg to demand that Ramaphosa step aside amid the Phala Phala scandal.
The calls gained momentum when on Monday protesters marched to the Hawks headquarters in Durban to demand the arrest of Ramaphosa.
Asked if the party was expecting tensions between the two warring factions during the conference, ANC spokesperson Pule Mabe did not respond to our questions neither did Jeff Radebe, the party's head of policy, could not be reached for comment.
RET spokesperson Mduduzi Nkambule said they would take advantage of the policy conference to discuss the step aside resolution and Ramaphosa's removal from the office.
“Because we didn’t have the NGC, we will use this as the opportunity to discuss the step aside and recommend that all those suspended and forced to step aside must all go back to work, including the SG (Ace Magashule).
“The step aside resolution must be scrapped because it is working against one faction,” he said.
Nkambule said the faction would also pursue calls for Ramaphosa to resign as the president of the ANC and the country.
“The president must be charged because he broke the rules.
“(Former head of the State Security Agency) Arthur Fraser met with the Hawks, and he provided them with the evidence.
“If he is charged, he should step aside.
“But because we want the step aside to be scrapped, we will tell him to resign because he is embarrassing the organisation.
“Last week we had the biggest march at Luthuli to demand his resignation, and he should resign,” he said.
If the call to reinstate Magashule holds sway, this could be history repeating itself as he will be the second leader to be reinstated to his position following a dismissal.
In June 2005, Jacob Zuma, ANC deputy president at the time, was dismissed by former president Thabo Mbeki after fraud and corruption conviction of one of Zuma's close colleagues, businessman Schabir Shaik.
He had been accused of soliciting bribes from a French arms company on Zuma's behalf.
The judge in the case found a generally corrupt relationship between Shaik and Zuma and subsequently charged him with two counts of corruption.
Following this, it was generally assumed that Zuma's political career was headed for the political graveyard, but this was not to be.
On June 16, days after Zuma had been fired, Mbeki was booed and heckled by ANC members at a Youth Day rally in protest against the President's decision to fire his deputy.
At the end of the same month, the ANC held its National General Council (NGC), at which three things happened.
* The branch delegates demanded that Zuma – which the ANC's National Executive Committee (NEC) asked to step aside – be reinstated.
* The rebellion against Mbeki was launched.
* The campaign to install Zuma as ANC president in 2007 and head of state in 2009 began in earnest and succeeded with Mbeki’s recall from the presidency.
Political analyst Dr Ralph Mathekga conceded that the conference would be tense and that the Phala Phala scandal has neutralised Ramaphosa on using the step aside rule to push out his opponents.
“It has created a space for others who want to say, look, we have our candidate, and you cannot just disqualify them, look at Phala Phala.
“That’s part of the plan, and it is almost working. It makes the conference even more tense.
“Remember, the bigger issue of these conferences now is about who is eligible to stand,” said Mathekga.
He added that while this might benefit others, Magashule was unlikely to benefit.
He said the ANC would likely not repeat the same mistakes that were done when Zuma was reinstated to his position of deputy president after Mbeki dismissed him.
“There are those who will ensure that things done before are not repeated.
“The ANC has become wise these days, and Zuma was a different politician than Magashule,” said Mathekga.
Another political analyst, Levy Ndou, said the issue of the RET wanting Ramaphosa to be removed and Magashule to be reinstated was predictable and might happen.
“But the question is who are the people who will raise it at the conference.
“Remember, some people are vocal outside the party’s structures.
“Whether they have influence in or outside the party is something else.”
While the University of Free State’s Professor Sethulego Matebesi said those supporting Magashule and the RET faction would use other strategies to portray Ramaphosa as the source of trouble for the party and the crisis South Africa is facing today.
He said the country would see more dirty campaigns against Ramaphosa.
For political analyst Kim Heller the policy conference was likely to be a poor dish of spent policies that have proved ineffective.
It was likely to be another showcase of stale solutions, she profered.
The KwaZulu-Natal conference outcome will play a huge role for a change at the top within the ANC or the country – such as the removal of Ramaphosa.
KZN is the ANC’s biggest province in terms of numbers, and it is a stronghold for the RET forces.
Out of 11 regions in the province, the RET-aligned leadership controls nine.
At the conference delegates were heard to break into a popular song “Wenzeni uZuma” asking what Zuma has done basically in protest against the jailing of Zuma.
ANC members tipped to contest the party's provincial chairperson position include premier Sihle Zikala and Community Safety MEC Peggy Nkonyeni, KZN Legislature chair of chairs Siboniso Duma and KZN provincial government former director-general Nhlanhla Ngidi.
The name of the corruption accused, former eThekwini mayor, Zandile Gumede, has also been linked to the contenders for the position of provincial treasurer.
Many of these candidates claim to have the support of the RET faction, which has staunchly supported Zuma.