The ANC could be forced to bite the bullet and beg former president Jacob Zuma to return to the party if the shocking results of the Social Research Foundation’s (SRF) poll, is anything to go by.
The opinion poll, recently released, shows data that Zuma will inflict serious damage to the governing party before the elections if he represents the new uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party.
The ANC suspended Zuma’s membership last week for insubordination under “exceptional circumstances”.
Zuma, who is a former ANC president, announced last December that he would be campaigning for the newly formed MK Party which consisted of some disgruntled members of the governing party.
Although the ANC has not given a deadline for Zuma to respond by about his suspension, he has not yet responded which could show defiance on his part.
Zuma was president of South Africa for almost nine years before being forced to step down by the ANC in 2018 after a series of scandals, but he has continued to enjoy support, especially in KwaZulu Natal, his home province.
Analysts believe the ANC, because of the support Zuma enjoys and “Zulu nationalism”, might have to reach out to him, to save their seats in Parliament’s next administration that would be determined by the national and provincial elections.
The SRF’s polling results suggest that the MK Party could secure 24% of the vote in KwaZulu-Natal, which could reduce the ANC’s national numbers to about 40%.
The ANC did not respond to calls made by The Star.
Dr Frans Cronje, who led the SFR poll, said the MK Party was a game changer after they found that the party could diminish ANC votes in the coming elections.
“When we polled in KZN last year the ANC was at 40%, but after Zuma entered the fray the ANC got 25% while MK got 24% and the IFP received 24%.
“Nationally, if it holds for Zuma, that means Zuma will take 5% from the ANC… Polls at the moment show the ANC is averaging at 45 % nationally and that number could go down to 40%.
“If a few other things go wrong, then we will start to see the prospect of the ANC later this year falling to about 30%,” he said.
Cronje said Zulu nationalism was not dead and was the reason for Zuma’s support.
“When Zuma became leader of the ANC, it was already on a slide, but it was only KZN that saw lifting levels of support.
“This is a shock for the ANC. The house is now on fire for the ANC and it’s burning… I thought before these results the ANC would be able to cobble together a majority later this year with some smaller parties but the MK Party is cannibalising the ANC,” he said.
Public policy specialist from the Wits School of Governance, Dr Kagiso Pooe, said Zuma still had a future in the ANC if the MK Party did well in the elections and the ANC could not ignore that.
“Whether this means he will go back to the ANC formally is something that will depend on how well the MK Party does at elections. Perhaps he could return to the ANC through making the MK Party an alliance partner of the ANC post-2024.
“The ANC cannot avoid its current decline, owing to historically poor policy and governance decisions. What it could do is illustrate political maturity in managing its decline in one of two ways. Firstly, illustrate humility to voters about its self-created government lapses. Secondly, put forward realistic policy answers and office holders that will be the face of the post-2024 election government or coalition.
“There could be degrees of damage. I think it’s important to define what we mean by damage. If we mean the MK Party brings the ANC in KZN under 50% and further depresses the ANC’s national percentage points, then we have major damage. But minor damage could still be a problem for a declining ANC. Zuma does not need to destroy the ANC, he simply needs to increase the rate at which it is haemorrhaging voters and political confidence,” Pooe said.
The Star
mashudu.sadike@inl.co.za